"Business is War." The traditional language of business certainly
makes it sound that way: outsmarting the competition, capturing market share,
making a killing, fighting brands, beating up suppliers, locking up customers.
Under business-as-war, there are the victors and the vanquished. The ultimate
win-lose view of the world comes from author Gore Vidal:
It is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.
But the way people talk about business today, you wouldn't think so. You
have to listen to customers, work with suppliers, create teams, establish
strategic partnerships--even with competitors. That doesn't sound like war.
Besides, there are few victors when business is conducted as war. The typical
result of a price war is surrendered profits all around. Just look at the
U.S. airline industry: it lost more money in the price wars of 1990--93
than it had previously made in all the time since Orville and Wilbur Wright.
The antithesis to Gore Vidal's worldview comes from Bernard Baruch, a leading
banker and financier for much of this century:
You don't have to blow out the other fellow's light to let your own shine.
Though less famous today than Gore Vidal, Baruch made a whole lot more money.
More often than not, we'll follow Baruch's advice in this book.
In fact, most businesses succeed only if others also succeed. The demand
for Intel chips increases when Microsoft creates more powerful software.
Microsoft software becomes more valuable when Intel produces faster chips.
It's mutual success rather than mutual destruction. It's win-win. The cold
war is over, and along with it the old assumptions about competition.
So, "Business is Peace"?
That doesn't sound quite right, either. We still see battles with competitors
over market share, fights with suppliers over cost, and conflicts with customers
over price. And the success of Intel and Microsoft hasn't exactly helped
Apple Computer. So if business isn't war and it isn't peace, what is it?
A New Mindset
Business is cooperation when it comes to creating a pie and competition
when it comes to dividing it up. In other words, business is War and Peace.
But it's not Tolstoy--endless cycles of war followed by peace followed by
war. It's simultaneously war and peace. As Ray Noorda, founder of the networking
software company Novell, explains: "You have to compete and cooperate
at the same time." The combination makes for a more dynamic relationship
than the words "competition" and "cooperation" suggest
individually. This is why we've adopted Noorda's word co-opetition, and
made it the title of our book.
What's the manual for co-opetition? It's not Leadership Secrets of Attila
the Hun. Nor is it Leadership Secrets of St. Francis of Assisi. You can
compete without having to kill the opposition. If fighting to the death
destroys the pie, there'll be nothing left to capture--that's lose-lose.
By the same token, you can cooperate without having to ignore your self-interest.
After all, it isn't smart to create a pie you can't capture--that's lose-win.
The goal is to do well for yourself. Sometimes that comes at the expense
of others, sometimes not. In this book, we'll discuss business as a game,
but not a game like sports, poker, or chess, which must be win-lose. In
business, your success doesn't require others to fail--there can be multiple
winners. Throughout the book, you'll see many examples of this. In the spirit
of co-opetition, we'll present some cases where win-lose is the most effective
approach and others where win-win is most effective. We'll discuss situations
where defeating your competitors is the best course and present other situations
where the best plan benefits several players, including competitors.
Putting co-opetition into practice requires hard-headed thinking. It's not
enough to be sensitized to the possibilities of cooperation and win-win
strategies. You need a framework to think through the dollars-and-cents
consequences of cooperation and of competition.
Game Theory
To find a way of bringing together competition and cooperation, we turn
to game theory. Game theory has the potential to revolutionize the way people
think about business. This is because the fundamental ideas of game theory
are so powerful, and because business offers so many opportunities for applying
them.
There has been a growing recognition that game theory is a crucial tool
for understanding the modern business world. In 1994 three pioneers in game
theory--John Nash, John Harsanyi, and Reinhart Selten--were awarded a Nobel
Prize. At the same time, the Federal Communications Commission was using
game theory to help it design a $7-billion auction of radio spectrum for
personal communication services. (Naturally, the bidders used game theory,
too.) Even as we write, the leading management consulting firms are introducing
game theory into their strategy practices.
The field of game theory dates back to the early days of World War II, when
British naval forces playing cat and mouse with German submarines needed
to understand the game better so that they could win it more often. They
discovered that the right moves weren't the ones pilots and sea captains
were making intuitively. By applying concepts later known as game theory,
the British improved their hit rate enormously. Their success against submarines
led them to apply game theory to many other war activities. Thus, game theory
was proven in practical life-and-death situations before it was actually
laid out on paper as a systematic theory.
The classic theoretical formulation came soon after, in 1944, when mathematical
genius John von Neumann and economist Oskar Morgenstern published their
book Theory of Games and Economic Behavior. This brilliant, but highly abstract,
work was immediately heralded as one of the greatest scientific achievements
of the century. It led to large numbers of technical papers in the fields
of economics, politics, military strategy, law, computer science, and even
evolutionary biology. In each of these fields, game theory has resulted
in major discoveries. Now, game theory is transforming the field of business
strategy.
Game theory makes it possible to move beyond overly simple ideas of competition
and cooperation to reach a vision of co-opetition more suited to the opportunities
of our time. To many, this will come as a surprise. The image game theory
often conjures up is business-as-war. That's to be expected since the field
was born during World War II and grew up during the Cold War. The mentality
was one of winners and losers--the zero-sum game, even the zero-sum society.
But that's only half the subject. Contemporary game theory applies just
as well to positive-sum--or win-win--games. The real value of game theory
for business comes when the full theory is put into practice: when game
theory is applied to the interplay between competition and cooperation.
What are the essential characteristics of game theory as applied to business?
What are its special virtues? How is it different from a host of other management
tools?
What Game Theory Has to Offer
Game theory focuses directly on the most pressing issue of all: finding
the right strategies and making the right decisions. There are many valuable
books on how to create a management environment conducive to making the
right decisions. There are also valuable books on how to build organizations
effective at carrying out decisions once they're made. But there's still
a great need for guidance in identifying the right strategy to begin with.
This is what game theory provides. It goes right for the crux of things,
showing you, in strategic terms, what is the best thing to do.
Game theory is particularly effective when there are many interdependent
factors and no decision can be made in isolation from a host of other decisions.
Business today is conducted in a world of bewildering complexity. Factors
you might not even think to ask about can determine your success or failure.
Even if you identify all the relevant factors, anything that changes one
is likely to affect many others. Amid all this complexity, game theory breaks
down the game into its key components. It helps you see what's going on
and what to do about it.
Game theory is an especially valuable tool to share with others in your
organization. The clear and explicit principles of game theory make it easier
to explain the reasoning behind a proposed strategy. It gives you and your
colleagues a common language to discuss alternatives. By letting others
in on the process you've used to reach a strategic decision, game theory
helps you build a consensus.
Such techniques for sharing strategic thinking are increasingly needed at
all levels of business. Decision making is becoming more complex and more
decentralized. Rapid changes in markets and technology require rapid, strategically
informed responses. Hence, the number of people in a company who will benefit
from applying game theory is growing greater all the time.
Game theory is an approach you can expand and build on. It's not a particular
prescription suited to a particular moment in business history. It's not
a rule-of-thumb that stops working when conditions change. It's a way of
thinking that survives changing business environments.
In many cases, game theory can suggest options that otherwise might never
have been considered. This is a consequence of game theory's systematic
approach. By presenting a more complete picture of each business situation,
game theory makes it possible to see aspects of the situation that would
otherwise have been ignored. In these neglected aspects, some of the greatest
opportunities for business strategy are to be found.
What You'll Find in This Book
We approach game theory mainly through real-life stories, involving characters
and companies you'll recognize. These stories tell of businesses competing
and cooperating, succeeding and failing, sometimes with surprising outcomes.
Some are war stories, others are peace stories. In both cases, they are
more than anecdotes. We use game theory to explain the successes and failures.
Each story is a case study accompanied by a full analysis of the principles
involved. We interweave the stories with theory, and summarize the lessons
in the form of checklists. This way, our analysis becomes more than descriptive.
It becomes prescriptive, too. When you understand why a strategy worked--or
didn't--you can apply the lesson to other situations.
The numerous case studies have other functions as well. They're not just
a device for making the subject more entertaining or for showing how our
concepts work in practice. They serve as an ongoing test of our theories.
We're skeptics, and we want you to be skeptical, too. We don't want you
to take what we say on trust. Our goal is to give you enough evidence through
case studies to accept or challenge our conclusions. After you've seen game
theory applied to large numbers of cases you'll discover its power, get
a feel for how it works, and learn to apply it yourself.
Despite the current surge of interest in applying game theory to business,
this is still a very new approach. Much of the terminology is new. In fact,
some of the key terms were actually coined during the writing of this book.
Even terms that seem familiar take on a new meaning in the context of game
theory. Like any theory offering a new perspective, it requires some patience
in the beginning. But if our explanations are successful, the new concepts
will soon become so much a part of your thinking, you'll wonder how you
ever managed without them.
How This Book is Organized
Part I, consisting of three chapters, outlines the game of business. It
introduces all the basic concepts and shows how they fit together. This
present chapter is intended to serve as an orientation session, a kind of
advance briefing on where this book will take you.
Chapter 2 describes all the players and analyzes the elements of competition
and cooperation among them. To make this clear, we construct a map for the
game of business. We call this the Value Net. It's a diagram that serves
as a visual representation of the game of business. The Value Net locates
all the various players, relative to one another, and identifies the interdependencies
among them. It's particularly useful for pointing out the ways a relationship
between players can combine competition and cooperation.
Chapter 3 then introduces game theory. We explain how this academic disciple
applies to the real world of business. Using detailed examples, we discuss
what happens when games are played out. In the process, we make game theory
accessible by taking the essential principles and stating them in a simple
and clear fashion that requires no mathematics or abstract theory.
Our account of game theory identifies five basic elements of any game: Players,
Added values, Rules, Tactics, and Scope--PARTS, for short. These become
our touchstones for the rest of the book. Along with the Value Net, they
provide the central conceptual scheme for applying game theory to business.
Part II, the remainder of the book, consists of separate chapters on each
of the five elements of a game. We describe each element in detail and what
significance each has for your business. Archimedes said that given a proper
lever, he could move the world. These are the five levers for moving the
world of business.
Changing the Game
This is where the biggest pay-off comes. We said business is different from
other games because it allows more than one winner. But business is also
different in another fundamental way: the game doesn't stand still. All
the elements in the game of business are constantly changing; nothing is
fixed. This is not just by chance. While football, poker, and chess have
ultimate ruling bodies--the NFL or FIFA, Hoyle, and the Chess Federation--business
doesn't. People are free to change the game of business to their benefit.
And they do.
Why change the game? An old Chinese proverb explains: if you continue on
the course you're headed, that's where you'll end up. Sometimes that's good,
sometimes not. You can play the game extremely well, and still fare terribly.
That's because you're playing the wrong game: you need to change it. Even
a good game can be made into a better one. Real success comes from actively
shaping the game you play--from making the game you want, not taking the
game you find.
How do you change the game? You may well have been doing this instinctively.
But game theory provides a systematic method. To change the game, you have
to change one or more of the five elements: you change the PARTS. Each component
we discuss is a powerful tool for transforming the game into a different
one. This is where game theory finds its greatest opportunities: in changing
the game. Changing not just the way you play, but the game you play.