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"Business
is War." The traditional language of business certainly makes
it sound that way: outsmarting the competition, capturing market
share, making a killing, fighting brands, beating up suppliers,
locking up customers.(1) Under business-as-war, there are the victors
and the vanquished. The ultimate win-lose view of the world comes
from author Gore Vidal:
It
is not enough to succeed. Others must fail.
But
the way people talk about business today, you wouldn't think so.
You have to listen to customers, work with suppliers, create teams,
establish strategic partnerships--even with competitors. That doesn't
sound like war. Besides, there are few victors when business is
conducted as war. The typical result of a price war is surrendered
profits all around. Just look at the U.S. airline industry: it lost
more money in the price wars of 1990--93 than it had previously
made in all the time since Orville and Wilbur Wright. (2)
The antithesis to Gore Vidal's worldview comes from Bernard Baruch,
a leading banker and financier for much of this century:
You don't have to blow out the other fellow's
light to let your own shine.
Though less famous today than Gore Vidal,
Baruch made a whole lot more money. More often than not, we'll follow
Baruch's advice in this book.
In fact, most businesses succeed only if
others also succeed. The demand for Intel chips increases when Microsoft
creates more powerful software. Microsoft software becomes more
valuable when Intel produces faster chips. It's mutual success rather
than mutual destruction. It's win-win. The cold war is over, and
along with it the old assumptions about competition.
So,
"Business is Peace"?
That doesn't sound quite right, either.
We still see battles with competitors over market share, fights
with suppliers over cost, and conflicts with customers over price.
And the success of Intel and Microsoft hasn't exactly helped Apple
Computer. So if business isn't war and it isn't peace, what is it?
A New Mindset
Business is cooperation when it comes to
creating a pie and competition when it comes to dividing it up.
In other words, business is War and Peace. But it's not Tolstoy--endless
cycles of war followed by peace followed by war. It's simultaneously
war and peace. As Ray Noorda, founder of the networking software
company Novell, explains: "You have to compete and cooperate
at the same time."(3) The combination makes for a more dynamic
relationship than the words "competition" and "cooperation"
suggest individually. This is why we've adopted Noorda's word co-opetition,
and made it the title of our book.
What's the manual for co-opetition? It's
not Leadership Secrets of Attila the Hun.(4) Nor is it Leadership Secrets
of St. Francis of Assisi. You can compete without having to kill
the opposition. If fighting to the death destroys the pie, there'll
be nothing left to capture--that's lose-lose. By the same token,
you can cooperate without having to ignore your self-interest. After
all, it isn't smart to create a pie you can't capture--that's lose-win.
The goal is to do well for yourself. Sometimes
that comes at the expense of others, sometimes not. In this book,
we'll discuss business as a game, but not a game like sports, poker,
or chess, which must be win-lose. In business, your success doesn't
require others to fail--there can be multiple winners. Throughout
the book, you'll see many examples of this. In the spirit of co-opetition,
we'll present some cases where win-lose is the most effective approach
and others where win-win is most effective. We'll discuss situations
where defeating your competitors is the best course and present
other situations where the best plan benefits several players, including
competitors.
Putting co-opetition into practice requires
hard-headed thinking. It's not enough to be sensitized to the possibilities
of cooperation and win-win strategies. You need a framework to think
through the dollars-and-cents consequences of cooperation and of
competition.
Game Theory
To find a way of bringing together competition
and cooperation, we turn to game theory. Game theory has the potential
to revolutionize the way people think about business. This is because
the fundamental ideas of game theory are so powerful, and because
business offers so many opportunities for applying them.
There has been a growing recognition that
game theory is a crucial tool for understanding the modern business
world. In 1994 three pioneers in game theory--John Nash, John Harsanyi,
and Reinhart Selten--were awarded a Nobel Prize. At the same time,
the Federal Communications Commission was using game theory to help
it design a $7-billion auction of radio spectrum for personal communication
services. (Naturally, the bidders used game theory, too.) Even as
we write, the leading management consulting firms are introducing
game theory into their strategy practices.
The field of game theory dates back to
the early days of World War II, when British naval forces playing
cat and mouse with German submarines needed to understand the game
better so that they could win it more often.(5) They discovered that
the right moves weren't the ones pilots and sea captains were making
intuitively. By applying concepts later known as game theory, the
British improved their hit rate enormously. Their success against
submarines led them to apply game theory to many other war activities.
Thus, game theory was proven in practical life-and-death situations
before it was actually laid out on paper as a systematic theory.
The classic theoretical formulation came
soon after, in 1944, when mathematical genius John von Neumann and
economist Oskar Morgenstern published their book Theory of Games
and Economic Behavior. This brilliant, but highly abstract, work
was immediately heralded as one of the greatest scientific achievements
of the century. It led to large numbers of technical papers in the
fields of economics, politics, military strategy, law, computer
science, and even evolutionary biology. In each of these fields,
game theory has resulted in major discoveries. Now, game theory
is transforming the field of business strategy.
Game theory makes it possible to move beyond
overly simple ideas of competition and cooperation to reach a vision
of co-opetition more suited to the opportunities of our time. To
many, this will come as a surprise. The image game theory often
conjures up is business-as-war. That's to be expected since the
field was born during World War II and grew up during the Cold War.
The mentality was one of winners and losers--the zero-sum game,
even the zero-sum society.(6) But that's only half the subject. Contemporary
game theory applies just as well to positive-sum--or win-win--games.
The real value of game theory for business comes when the full theory
is put into practice: when game theory is applied to the interplay
between competition and cooperation.
What are the essential characteristics
of game theory as applied to business? What are its special virtues?
How is it different from a host of other management tools?
What Game Theory Has to Offer
Game theory focuses directly on the most
pressing issue of all: finding the right strategies and making the
right decisions. There are many valuable books on how to create
a management environment conducive to making the right decisions.
There are also valuable books on how to build organizations effective
at carrying out decisions once they're made. But there's still a
great need for guidance in identifying the right strategy to begin
with. This is what game theory provides. It goes right for the crux
of things, showing you, in strategic terms, what is the best thing
to do.
Game theory is particularly effective when
there are many interdependent factors and no decision can be made
in isolation from a host of other decisions. Business today is conducted
in a world of bewildering complexity. Factors you might not even
think to ask about can determine your success or failure. Even if
you identify all the relevant factors, anything that changes one
is likely to affect many others. Amid all this complexity, game
theory breaks down the game into its key components. It helps you
see what's going on and what to do about it.
Game theory is an especially valuable tool
to share with others in your organization. The clear and explicit
principles of game theory make it easier to explain the reasoning
behind a proposed strategy. It gives you and your colleagues a common
language to discuss alternatives. By letting others in on the process
you've used to reach a strategic decision, game theory helps you
build a consensus.
Such techniques for sharing strategic thinking are increasingly
needed at all levels of business. Decision making is becoming more
complex and more decentralized. Rapid changes in markets and technology
require rapid, strategically informed responses. Hence, the number
of people in a company who will benefit from applying game theory
is growing greater all the time.
Game theory is an approach you can expand
and build on. It's not a particular prescription suited to a particular
moment in business history. It's not a rule-of-thumb that stops
working when conditions change. It's a way of thinking that survives
changing business environments.
In many cases, game theory can suggest
options that otherwise might never have been considered. This is
a consequence of game theory's systematic approach. By presenting
a more complete picture of each business situation, game theory
makes it possible to see aspects of the situation that would otherwise
have been ignored. In these neglected aspects, some of the greatest
opportunities for business strategy are to be found.
What You'll Find in This Book
We approach game theory mainly through
real-life stories, involving characters and companies you'll recognize.
These stories tell of businesses competing and cooperating, succeeding
and failing, sometimes with surprising outcomes. Some are war stories,
others are peace stories. In both cases, they are more than anecdotes.
We use game theory to explain the successes and failures. Each story
is a case study accompanied by a full analysis of the principles
involved. We interweave the stories with theory, and summarize the
lessons in the form of checklists. This way, our analysis becomes
more than descriptive. It becomes prescriptive, too. When you understand
why a strategy worked--or didn't--you can apply the lesson to other
situations.
The numerous case studies have other functions
as well. They're not just a device for making the subject more entertaining
or for showing how our concepts work in practice. They serve as
an ongoing test of our theories. We're skeptics, and we want you
to be skeptical, too. We don't want you to take what we say on trust.
Our goal is to give you enough evidence through case studies to
accept or challenge our conclusions. After you've seen game theory
applied to large numbers of cases you'll discover its power, get
a feel for how it works, and learn to apply it yourself.
Despite the current surge of interest in
applying game theory to business, this is still a very new approach.
Much of the terminology is new. In fact, some of the key terms were
actually coined during the writing of this book. Even terms that
seem familiar take on a new meaning in the context of game theory.
Like any theory offering a new perspective, it requires some patience
in the beginning. But if our explanations are successful, the new
concepts will soon become so much a part of your thinking, you'll
wonder how you ever managed without them.
How This Book is Organized
Part I, consisting of three chapters, outlines
the game of business. It introduces all the basic concepts and shows
how they fit together. This present chapter is intended to serve
as an orientation session, a kind of advance briefing on where this
book will take you.
Chapter 2 describes all the players and
analyzes the elements of competition and cooperation among them.
To make this clear, we construct a map for the game of business.
We call this the Value Net. It's a diagram that serves as a visual
representation of the game of business. The Value Net locates all
the various players, relative to one another, and identifies the
interdependencies among them. It's particularly useful for pointing
out the ways a relationship between players can combine competition
and cooperation.
Chapter 3 then introduces game theory.
We explain how this academic discipline applies to the real world
of business. Using detailed examples, we discuss what happens when
games are played out. In the process, we make game theory accessible
by taking the essential principles and stating them in a simple
and clear fashion that requires no mathematics or abstract theory.
Our account of game theory identifies five
basic elements of any game: Players, Added values, Rules, Tactics,
and Scope--PARTS, for short. These become our touchstones for the
rest of the book. Along with the Value Net, they provide the central
conceptual scheme for applying game theory to business.
Part II, the remainder of the book, consists
of separate chapters on each of the five elements of a game. We
describe each element in detail and what significance each has for
your business. Archimedes said that given a proper lever, he could
move the world. These are the five levers for moving the world of
business.
Changing the Game
This is where the biggest pay-off comes.
We said business is different from other games because it allows
more than one winner. But business is also different in another
fundamental way: the game doesn't stand still. All the elements
in the game of business are constantly changing; nothing is fixed.
This is not just by chance. While football, poker, and chess have
ultimate ruling bodies--the NFL or FIFA, Hoyle, and the Chess Federation--business
doesn't.(7) People are free to change the game of business to their
benefit. And they do.
Why change the game? An old Chinese proverb
explains: if you continue on the course you're headed, that's where
you'll end up. Sometimes that's good, sometimes not. You can play
the game extremely well, and still fare terribly. That's because
you're playing the wrong game: you need to change it. Even a good
game can be made into a better one. Real success comes from actively
shaping the game you play--from making the game you want, not taking
the game you find.
How do you change the game? You may well
have been doing this instinctively. But game theory provides a systematic
method. To change the game, you have to change one or more of the
five elements: you change the PARTS. Each component we discuss is
a powerful tool for transforming the game into a different one.
This is where game theory finds its greatest opportunities: in changing the game. Changing not just the way you play, but the game you play.
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